Kurzweils Predictions
Ray Kurzweil, Googles Director of Engineering, is a well-known futurist with a high-hitting track record for accurate predictions. Of his 147 predictions since the 1990s, Kurzweil claimsan 86 percent accuracy rate. Earlier this week, at the SXSW Conference in Austin, Texas, Kurzweil made yet another prediction: the technological singularity will happen sometime in the next 30 years.
In a communication to Futurism, Kurzweil states:
2029 is the consistent date I have predicted for when an AI will pass a valid Turing test and therefore achieve human levels of intelligence. I have set the date 2045 for the Singularity which is when we will multiply our effective intelligence a billion fold by merging with the intelligence we have created.
By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence, Kurzweil saidin an interview with SXSW.
The singularity is that point in time when all the advances in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), willlead to machines that are smarter than human beings. Kurzweilstimetable for the singularity is consistentwith other predictions, notably those of Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son, who predicts that the dawn of super-intelligent machines will happen by 2047. But for Kurzweil, the process towards this singularity has already begun.
That leads to computers having human intelligence, our putting them inside our brains, connecting them to the cloud, expanding who we are. Today, thats not just a future scenario, Kurzweil said. Its here, in part, and its going to accelerate.
We all know it is coming sooner or later, but the question in the minds of almost everyone is: should humanity fear the singularity? Everyone knows that when machines become smarter than human beings, they tend to take over the world. Right? Many of the worlds science and technology bigwigs like Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and even Bill Gates warn about this kind of future.
Well, Kurzweil doesnt think so. In fact, he isnt particularly worried about the singularity. It would be more accurate to say that hes been looking forward to it. What science fiction depicts as the singularity at which point a single brilliant AI enslaves humanity is just that: fiction.
Thats not realistic, Kurzweil said during hisinterview with SXSW. We dont have one or two AIs in the world. Today we have billions.
For Kurzweil, the singularity is an opportunity for humankind to improve. He envisions the same technology that will make AIs more intelligent giving humans a boost as well.
Whats actually happening is [machines] are powering all of us, Kurzweil said during the SXSW interview. Theyre making us smarter. They may not yet be inside our bodies, but, by the 2030s, we will connect our neocortex, the part of our brain where we do our thinking, to the cloud.
This idea is similar to Musks controversial neural laceand to XPRIZE Foundation chairman Peter Diamandis meta-intelligence concept.Kurzweil expounded on how this technology could improve human lives.
Were going to get more neocortex, were going to be funnier, were going to be better at music. Were going to be sexier, Kurzweil said during the SXSW interview. Were really going to exemplify all the things that we value in humans to a greater degree.
To those who view this cybernetic society as more fantasy than future, Kurzweil pointing out that there are people with computers in their brains today Parkinsons patients. Thats how cybernetics is just getting its foot in the door, Kurzweil said.And, because its the nature of technology to improve, Kurzweil predicts that during the 2030s some technology will be invented that cango inside your brain and help your memory.
So, instead of the machines-taking-over-the-world vision of the singularity, Kurzweil thinks itll be a future of unparalleled human-machine synthesis.
Ultimately, it will affect everything, Kurzweil said during the SXSW interview. Were going to be able to meet the physical needs of all humans. Were going to expand our minds and exemplify these artistic qualities that we value.
Editors note: This article has been updated to correct errors. A previous version of this article stated that Kurzweil predicted the singularity by 2029, rather than the date an AI will pass a valid Turing test.
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Kurzweil Claims That the Singularity Will Happen by 2029 - Futurism - Futurism
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