The Denver Nuggets have thrived during Michael Porter Jr.'s extended Covid-19 absence. With Porter ... [+] potentially returning this week, questions loom about his reintegration into the rotation, beginning with whether he'll start or come off the bench.
After the Denver Nuggets completed their most successful playoff run since 2009 last year by reaching the Western Conference Finals, ambitions were sky high coming into the current season.
Head coach Michael Malone didnt hedge in summing up the teams expectations prior to Denvers regular season opener. Obviously our goal...we haven't attained our goal yet. That's to win a championship, he explained, and from the coaching staff to the players to management, the message was clear from all corners of the Nuggets organization: They believe themselves a genuine title contender, and their goal is nothing short of a ring.
But with Denver getting off to their worst start in six years, the disappointment set in quickly as they managed to win just one of their first five games. Even for a team expecting a few bumps on the road following a significant offseason roster shakeup, getting that deep in the hole so quickly fell far below the expectations of an aspiring title contender.
Making matters worse, the Nuggets talented rising star sophomore Michael Porter Jr. who had just gotten the nod as Denvers starting small forward had to begin a seven-day quarantine after playing only the first four games of the season due to the NBAs health and safety protocols.
And that inauspicious development marked just the beginning of a still-unfolding situation which progressed from the announcement of a second quarantine of at least 10 days to be added to the initial seven-day period, to Malones eventual confirmation last Tuesday prior to Denvers game at the Brooklyn Nets that Porter has in fact contracted COIVID-19.
While Porter has been sidelined, Malone has mostly wanted to sideline discussion of his return as well, though he acknowledged following yesterdays practice that he could be back as early as this week.
Ill be honest, I havent spent a lot of time thinking about that, Malone said when asked about reintroducing Porter back into Denvers rotation. I think the earliest hell be able to get back is as we head out on that nine-day, five-game road trip. The hope is that he may be able to join us as we leave for Phoenix. But that is not a definite. Well have to wait and see.
In the meantime, Denver has in large part righted the ship since their rocky start despite Porters untimely absence, most recently beating the Golden State Warriors at home at Ball Arena to even their record at .500 with their sixth win. In a season when head coach Michael Malone has beaten the drum at nearly every opportunity that the Nuggets need to play well for the full 48 minutes and cant take quarters off, it was one of their most complete wins, and one that helps solidify a growing sense that Denver is a team which has finally found its footing.
From the seasons opening tip-off, the Nuggets faced two major challenges to getting on track. First, the replacement of free agent departees and former key rotation players Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee and Torrey Craig with seven new draft and free agency additions represented Denvers biggest roster shakeup in years after several seasons of having one of the leagues highest player continuity rates.
The other, and arguably even more critical factor Denver would need to adapt to was the insertion of Porter into the starting lineup. The was a precarious move by Malone on a number of fronts, beginning before the season even started with the insistence by last seasons starting small forward Will Barton III that he is a starter in this league raising doubts as to whether he would accept a role coming off the bench.
Porter getting sidelined after four games did carry the somewhat convenient side effect of bumping the question of roles to the back burner by allowing Barton to resume his starting position (for now). But the absence also comes at great opportunity cost to the Nuggets, as making progress on solving one of the most critical puzzles the team faces this season how to more fully and smoothly integrate Porter into the starting lineup alongside Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic must be put on hold until his return.
One of the biggest keys to the Nuggets finding their footing after those early struggles was the bench unit where nearly all of Denvers new player minutes are concentrated finally establishing cohesion, chemistry and a defensive identity. According to NBA.com, that reserve unit has been seventh in the league in net rating at plus-4.1 through the month of January, an impressive and dramatic upswing from a December in which they were 24th with a minus-4.3 net rating.
Denver Nuggets 2020-21 Starters and Bench Net Rating Games 1-4 vs Games 5-12.
The chart above shows the difference between the first four games in which Michael Porter Jr. played and the most recent eight games where he did not.
It should be emphasized at this point that the numbers in the chart are not presented to suggest that the Nuggets have played better recently because Porter has been missing games. For one thing correlation doesnt necessarily imply causation, for another were dealing with very small samples, and for one more still Porter was in the starting lineup and not part of the more-problematic reserve unit early on.
And well beyond those factors, there are truckloads of more reasons Denver struggled early, from JaMychal Green missing the beginning of the season to several players playing poorly to a drastically shortened training camp and preseason depriving the team of time to integrate their new players. There are many good reasons to think that the Nuggets would have found their way to bouncing back from their poor start had Porter continued playing as well. And on the flip side of that, while there are certainly questions especially on the defensive end about the impact of Porters return, there
But with all of those disclaimers duly noted, the improvements shown in the chart are in fact descriptive of what has happened so far, and a clear indication of just how much f a turnaround Denver made after those first few games, a success which both the starting lineup and the bench have managed to achieve in Porters absence.
Which raises the question: Now that the Nuggets have established some functional, effective combinations in both their bench and starting units, what will be the impact of Michael Porter Jr.s return to the rotation, and more to the point, will Malone re-insert him into the starting lineup, or try to integrate him with the reserves?
In a vacuum, the coaching staffs preference might be to hang a do not disturb sign on both the current starting five and bench rotation, as each unit has found a way to thrive in recent games.
The old-school, well-established five-man starting group of Jokic, Murray, Barton, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap (with the exception of Harris missing the last two games) which played the bulk of last season has settled into functioning like the well-oiled machine they can be at their most optimal. And while both Harris and Barton have faced shooting struggles (they are in the 46th and 33rd percentiles, respectively, in effective field goal percentage for their positions according to Cleaning the Glass), the prospect of re-introducing Porter into that mix carries the potential risk of disrupting that smooth-functioning chemistry.
Likewise, with the bench unit having just overcome its early woes to have reached a high-functioning level of play in recent games, disturbing what might be a somewhat delicate balance by plugging Porter into the reserve rotation could derail at least some of the progress they have made, especially on the defensive end where Porters weaknesses tend to be concentrated.
But obviously Michael Malone obviously can not and should not avoid playing Porter. As one of Denvers top three most talented players, one with All-Star if not All-NBA upside and arguably the Nuggets best hope for becoming the legitimate third prong of a big three carrying the team through playoff runs, a more fully-optimized and integrated Porter is intrinsic and indispensable to both short- and long-term success for the team.
As to whether Malone plans to insert Porter with the starters or bench, the coach has not yet tipped his hand.
Well figure Michael Porter out when hes cleared and ready to come back, Malone said following yesterdays practice. And well feel, How are we playing, how is our unit going? And well make the appropriate decision at that time.
Easing Porter back in through the bench rotation seems like the most plausible outcome at this point, and if thats the case his impact on their defensive effectiveness will be the key factor to watch for.
But whether its to the bench or the starting five, Porters return, challenging as it may be, will be extremely welcome to a team that still struggles with getting consistent production from most players no named Jokic, and is facing the rigors of an upcoming five-game road trip where a deep bench will be critical to reducing playing time and fatigue, and his scoring and rebounding production will be badly needed.
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