Many crypto traders expect the Bitcoin halving event to be a pivotal moment in 2024, significantly impacting the crypto market. However, analysts at Steno Research anticipate that it will be a buy the rumor, sell the news event.
There have been three halving events in Bitcoins history, reducing miner rewards from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in 2012, 12.5 BTC in 2016 and 6.25 BTC at the last halving on May 11, 2020.
Steno Research says that BTC is likely to repeat the 2016 halving with selling pressure sustained for up to four months after.
We foresee the next Bitcoin halving as a short-term buy the rumor, sell the news event, echoing the 2016 halvings pattern, this time around even with heightened anticipation from Bitcoin ETF [exchange-traded fund] holders, the research firm stated.
Steno Research expects a surge in BTCs value leading up to the halving event. However, it says the value could dip below its price at the time of the halving within the first 90 days following the halving.
Steno Research analysts identified parallels between BTC price performance before and after the 2016 halving, indicating that similar outcomes can be expected from the upcoming event.
The report noted that Bitcoins price remained below its pre-halving level for the entire 90 days following the halving. Specifically, on the 90th day post-halving, Bitcoin was priced 8.4% lower than before the halving, Steno Analyst Mads Eberhardt wrote.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin daily mining rewards are at their highest ever as the price trades close to its all-time high. This implies that even though the number of BTC issued will be the smallest yet, after the halving, the value of this issuance will be high when measured in dollars.
The report explained that with the current price at approximately $71,563, this reduction now translates to $224,512 worth of Bitcoin, compared to the $55,000 the miners received after the last halving.
As such, miners are likely to sell all their Bitcoin over time to cover the costs associated with their mining operations, the report noted. This then contributes to the sell-side pressure that causes the BTC price to correct after months after the halving.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Band signal suggests BTC could double by July
Further, the report explained that the halving is a bullish catalyst for Bitcoins price once selling pressure from miners reduces.
Eberhardt said:
Another analyst, Alex Wice, saidthe Bitcoin halving is going to cause a repricing that is expected to send the price ballistic, arguing that even though people know about it, it is never fully priced in.
Bitget Wallet chief operating officer Alvin Kan expects some short-term volatility post-halving but that the bullishness arising from the event could lead to strong levels of interest and growth in the wider Web3 ecosystem.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $71,563, up 3.8% over the last 24 hours
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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Bitcoin halving could be a 'sell-the-news' event, at least for a few months - Cointelegraph
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