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Pandemic Expert on the Longevity and Infection Rate of Outbreak – Newstalkkgvo

Posted: March 21, 2020 at 5:42 am

Pandemic expert PeterMarghellaappeared on KGVOs Talkback on March 18 to speak about the COVID-19 outbreak, including projections of the outbreaks longevity, as well as the most effective way to slow the rate of infection.

Marghellabegins bysayingthat the outbreakhas been compared to the Spanish Flu, a pandemic that took the lives of about 100 million people worldwidebetween 1918 and 1919.Projections have drawn comparisons to the Spanish Flu, hypothesizing that the outbreak of COVID-19 will last about 18 months with three distinct waves of infection.

However,Marghellasays that he has objections about comparing the Spanish Flu to the novel coronavirus.

The issues I have with isthat,one, this is COVID-19, a novel virus. The protagonist virus was coronavirus,whichwe live with all the time, just like rhinovirus. But this is a mutation, and weve never seen anything like it before. It should by no means be compared to influenza, which is awholedifferent animal thatbehaves in a completely different fashion.

According toMarghella, the second issue is that transportation during the Spanish Flu was slow to facilitate the spread of the disease. However, modes of transportation in 2020 have been able to spread the virus worldwide in only a few months.

Marghellaalso spoke about the notion of flattening the curve. This is a popular graphcirculatingsocial media and mass media that demonstrates the rates of inflection with and withoutpreventivemeasures. Logically, implementing preventive measuressuch as social distancingand vigorous hand-washingslows the rate of infection. Flattening the curve is crucial in ensuring that the countrys healthcare system is notoverwhelmedaboveits current capacity ofbetween940thousandand960 thousand hospital beds nationwide.

Theflatten the curvecomment that everyone is hearing, spoken very loudly andimportantly,is the notion that we have to try toelongate the epidemic curve tokeep itunderneaththat period or point,Marghellasays.If we exceed that...static amount of healthcare resources, we end upcrushingthe healthcare infrastructure of the United States because we cant accommodate the surge.

Marghellasays that dividing the types ofsymptomsis important in accommodatingthe surge of infection rates. The first set of symptoms are milder in nature and include flu-like symptomssuch as fatigue, a sore throat, and a runnynose. The second set of symptoms are more severe: symptoms include a fever of above101 degreesFahrenheit, tightness in the chest, bloody sputum, and signs of pneumonia. These are serious symptoms that should immediately receive medical care.

The least at-risk population in the country are children and adults up to 60 years old without underlying health conditions and non-smokers.

This population can still fall ill to COVID-19, but the symptoms tend to be mild and patients recover quickly; nonetheless, it isvery importantfor the least at-risk to practice the same preventive techniques to protect the more vulnerable populations.

When asked whatMarghellawould say to the Missoula City-County Health Department aboutmanagingthe current outbreak, he responds:

"Beabsolutelyforward-leaning. You are behind the powercurve with this event because you have lost the pre-event deliberate planning phase,whereyou could have addressed most of the things you could have put inplacetheminutethat warnings appeared that the outbreak was going to occur.Therehasto bean absoluteacceptancethat this is an emergency of a large scale in your own backyard, and no one is going to get a bypass from this at all. The acceptance is that this has potential universal impacts on the human species.

Marghellaemphasizes that planning ina communityis critical, even if it does not match 100% of the needs of a population.

Marghellaconcludes his time with KGVO by mentioning some of the positives of the current outbreak:there is about a 96% survival rate from the illness. Childrenand healthy adultsare unaffected by the severe symptoms of the virus.

Furthermore,Marghellareminds listeners, well get through this the best we can.

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Pandemic Expert on the Longevity and Infection Rate of Outbreak - Newstalkkgvo

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